Ligue 1+: acquisition held, retention did not
Ligue 1+ hit its full-season subscriber target in one month, then slipped back. Becoming your own broadcaster means inheriting a problem that selling rights never posed.
Ligue 1+ passed one million subscribers on 14 September 2025, a month after launch. That was the target set for the entire season. Eight months later the platform is still hovering around a million, with a decline recorded in spring 2026.
The two facts read together: recruiting was never the problem. Keeping was.
A plan calibrated on a stock, not a flow
LFP Media's initial plan aimed at 1.5 million subscribers and 320 million euros of revenue for 2026-27. The projection retained in spring 2026 stands at 170.1 million. The gap does not come from a failed launch, but from the implicit assumption that a subscriber acquired stays acquired.
A target expressed in subscriber numbers describes a stock. A subscription service lives off a flow: arrivals, departures, and the difference between them. As long as the departure is not modelled, the target stock is a wish.
1.026 million subscribers on 14 September 2025, roughly one million in spring 2026, against a 1.5 million target.
Churn is not an accident, it is the normal regime
On the French subscription video market, monthly cancellation rates observed between October 2025 and March 2026 stand at 5.62% for Netflix and 7.25% for Disney+. Those services offer a catalogue available at all times.
A league channel is structurally more exposed: its value is concentrated on dates, it collapses during the off-season, and part of its base depends on the run of a single club. Retention there demands more, not less.
What selling the rights used to hide
- Volume risk passed to the broadcaster, who absorbed it inside a wider catalogue.
- Seasonality did not affect the league's revenue, which was guaranteed by contract.
- The relationship with the subscriber, and therefore the cost of maintaining it, appeared nowhere on the balance sheet.
What retention requires observing
A retention plan is not steered on the end-of-month subscriber count, which arrives too late. It is steered on the signals that precede the exit: a fall in searches tied to the club being followed, cancellation queries, offer comparisons, and how geographically concentrated those movements are.
Those signals are observable before the act, which is the only window in which an intervention has an effect. Once the cancellation is recorded, all that remains is a reacquisition cost.
Sources
- Ligue 1+ franchit le cap du million d'abonnés : 1,026 million au 14 septembre 2025, LFP, 2025
- Projections de recettes audiovisuelles 2026-2027 : 170,1 M€ attendus contre 320 M€ au plan initial de LFP Media, base d'abonnés autour du million et en recul, Morning Foot, 2026
- Taux de résiliation mensuels des plateformes SVOD en France, octobre 2025 à mars 2026 : 5,62 % pour Netflix, 7,25 % pour Disney+, étude Spliiit relayée par Selectra, 2026
Frequently asked questions
- How many subscribers does Ligue 1+ have?
- 1.026 million on 14 September 2025, a month after launch, which matched the target for the whole season. In spring 2026 the platform hovers around a million, with a decline recorded in the preceding weeks.
- Why is revenue below plan?
- LFP Media's plan aimed at 1.5 million subscribers and 320 million euros for 2026-27. The projection retained in spring 2026 stands at 170.1 million. The gap comes from a base that did not grow beyond a million.
- What is a normal cancellation rate on this market?
- Between October 2025 and March 2026, monthly rates observed in France stand at 5.62% for Netflix and 7.25% for Disney+. A league channel, whose value is concentrated on dates and pauses during the off-season, is structurally more exposed.
- What should be monitored to anticipate a cancellation?
- The signals that precede it: a fall in searches tied to the club being followed, cancellation queries, offer comparisons. They are observable before the act, the only window in which an intervention has an effect.
